Three Years of War in Ukraine
Trump understands the deal must be struck directly between the US and Russia—between him and Putin, strongman to strongman. Including other stakeholders in peace talks would delay deals. Putin, dominant on the battlefield, has waited to negotiate with Trump, who will operate in a realist framework rather than invoke a rules-based order. The likely outcome is a ceasefire followed by a peace deal resembling Versailles after WWI or Yalta after WWII—where major powers carved out spheres of influence.